NOAA updates Atlantic hurricane season forecast

By Meteorologist Mike Skurko

With the peak of Atlantic hurricane season nearly here, NOAA forecasters have increased the likelihood of a below-normal season.

“We are more confident that a below-normal season will occur because atmospheric and oceanic conditions that suppress cyclone formation have developed and will persist through the season.” said Gerry Bell, Ph.D., lead seasonal hurricane forecaster at NOAA’s Climate Prediction Center, a division of the National Weather Service.

In their initial outlook in May, NOAA predicted a 50 percent chance of a below-normal season, a 40 percent chance of a normal season, and a 10 percent chance of an above normal season.  Those numbers are now 70 percent, 25 percent and 5 percent, respectively.

The chart below shows their new numbers predicted for the Atlantic hurricane season.  The new range of numbers shows one less named storm, and the possibility of no major hurricanes at all:

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The initial factors relating to a below-normal hurricane season can be found in our CBS3 Pinpoint Weather Blog entry from May.

The entire press release from NOAA can be found here: http://www.noaanews.noaa.gov/stories2014/20140807_hurricaneoutlook_atlantic_update.html

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